07/02/2009 - Bethesda, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Anthony Kim set the course record with an eight-under 62 at Congressional, taking the first-round lead Thursday at the AT&T National.
Tiger Woods, the tournament host, shot a six-under 64 to share second place with D.A. Points and Bryce Molder. Australia's Steve Elkington had a 65, while Jim Furyk led a three-way tie at 66.
Kim, who made it around the 7,200-yard course without a bogey, collected six birdies on his last nine holes to best the old scoring record of 63 set by Tom Pernice, Jr. and Peter Lonard last year.
In terms of birdies, it was the kind of success the 24-year-old Kim hasn't approached since he set the 18-hole birdie record at the Masters by making 11 of them in the second round.
"I'd like to say it was just me playing fantastic golf, but I got a couple good breaks along the way," said Kim, who also set a personal scoring record on the PGA Tour.
Kim made his eight birdies before Woods even hit the course to play his first competitive round at Congressional since 2007. That was the year Woods founded the Fourth of July Weekend tournament that benefits his foundation and pays tribute to members of the U.S. Armed Forces.
Woods missed last year's AT&T National after having season-ending left knee surgery following his U.S. Open victory.
He made about 150 feet worth of putts Thursday while shooting his best score since also posting a 64 in the second round of the 2007 Deutsche Bank Championship, which took place in September of that year.
Although Woods has routinely blamed his putting for his sometimes sporadic play this season, he seemed confident with the flat stick on Congressional's soon-to-be replaced greens.
"Today I hit a lot of putts on-line," he said. "Some went in."
Playing catch-up all day, he made four birdies and was bogey-free until hitting into a bunker at the 11th hole. Woods rebounded with a 31-foot birdie putt at the 12th -- this after he cursed his drive, which went into the right rough.
He made back-to-back birdies at the 15th and 16th, holing a 12-footer on the latter to climb within two shots of Kim's lead.
Overnight rains turned Congressional into a shooting gallery, and 36 players in a field of 119 shot under-par in the first round.
"The golf course could be had," said Woods. "You could be aggressive, you could fire at the flags and the only thing you really had to worry about is spinning the ball back too much."
Kim focused on hitting quality shots and also found the course ripe for scoring, although he took some time to explain the ways he got lucky during the first round.
Unsure of the wind at No. 3 -- his 12th hole -- Kim fired a drive that was headed 10 or 15 yards right of the fairway. The ball kicked left, saving him from a lie behind a tree, and he made a birdie.
On the next hole, Kim's drive was so far right that it missed the trees altogether, leaving him with a clear shot at the green. He made a seven-foot birdie putt there, then completed a run of three birdies in a row at No. 5.
"This golf course fits my eye, and when I hit it wide I seem to get lucky out here," Kim said. "This is one of the very few courses I feel like I get lucky at. I love coming back to a course I have good feelings about, and obviously playing well last year helped. But this course does fit my eye, and I'm starting to see the break on these greens pretty well."
Kim added birdies at the seventh and eighth holes, rolling in a seven-foot putt for the last one.
Saddled with high expectations since he won twice in 2008, and battling a nagging thumb injury, Kim has struggled to crack the top 10 this season. He hasn't done it since tying for second place behind Geoff Ogilvy at the Mercedes-Benz Championship in January, the PGA Tour's season-opener.
But Kim has finally gotten some strength back in his injured thumb, helping him to re-adjust his backswing, and he said his goal now is to win major championships.
Congressional, set to host the 2011 U.S. Open, is a good place to practice.
"I'm starting to focus on my course management because I know at majors that's what's important," said Kim, who tied for 16th at last month's U.S. Open. "This is a major championship type of golf course, obviously, because in two years we'll be here for the Open. I just know that if I'm working on the right things, it's going to pay off, whether it's tomorrow, Saturday, Sunday or next week."
The United States Golf Associations will begin its preparations for the '11 Open next week, when the Congressional greens are scheduled to be ripped up and the soil underneath them replaced.
Woods' tournament will move to the Philadelphia area the next two years to Aronimink Golf Club.
<< Ribery will only leave Bayern for Real
Munich, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chelsea and Manchester United appear to have
missed out on signing Franck Ribery after the France star revealed he will only
leave Bayern Munich for Real Madrid.
The two Premier League heavyweights were
<< Arsenal's Wenger hails Wilshere deal
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arsenal's teenage midfielder Jack Wilshere
has joined Aaron Ramsey in signing a new long-term contract with the Gunners.
The 17-year-old broke into the first-team picture at the Emirates Stadium last
sea
<< Napoli's Donadoni: Lavezzi will return
Naples, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Napoli coach Roberto Donadoni is confident
that Argentina forward Ezequiel Lavezzi will return to the club for the start
of pre-season training.
The 24-year-old has been heavily linked with a move
<< Dortmund: Zidan to stay put
Dortmund, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Borussia Dortmund coach Jurgen Klopp
insists that his club have no intention of selling Egypt striker Mohamed Zidan
in the current transfer window.
The 27-year-old struggled to make an impact
Panthers sign Leopold, Wilson >>
Sunrise, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Panthers bolstered their defensive
corps Thursday by signing both Jordan Leopold and Clay Wilson.
Leopold, who signed a one-year contract, was acquired on the NHL Draft's
second day from Calg
Bees delay Astros/Padres game >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In the top of the ninth inning of a game
between the Houston Astros and San Diego Padres, a swarm of bees took over
part of left field and caused the game to go into a delay.
With Miguel Tejada at the plate w
Hurricanes retain LaRose for two years >>
Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Carolina Hurricanes agreed to terms with
forward Chad LaRose on a two-year contract worth $3.4 million on Thursday.
LaRose is set to earn $1.5 million next season and $1.9 million in 2010-11.
The 27-y
Pressel among Jamie Farr leaders >>
Sylvania, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Morgan Pressel, Laura Diaz and Song-Hee Kim
each fired rounds of seven-under 64 on Thursday to share the opening-round
lead of the Jamie Farr Owens Corning Classic.
Suzann Pettersen and Michelle Wie ar
MySportsbook.com Favors Fighting Irish to win College Football betting odds
According to odds makers at MySportsbook.com, on January 8, the Fighting Irish faithful may be toasting their 14th national title in Arizona – Notre Dame’s first national championship in close to 20 years.
Although MySportsbook.com has listed Notre Dame as the 5-1 favorite to win thecollege football College Football betting, fans in Columbus do not need to cancel their tickets to Glendale just yet. The Ohio State Buckeyes, listed right behind the Irish at 7-1, are also heavy favorites to win college football’s most coveted prize, while West Virginia, USC and the 2007 National Champion Texas Longhorns - all listed at 8-1 – are strong contenders as well.
MySportsbook.com has also posted gambling odds on the conference championships for the ACC, Big 12 and SEC. In the ACC – it could be anyone’s title, particularly for the two schools from the Sunshine State. Florida State and Miami, both listed at 2-1, are favored to win the ACC Championship Game odds, with the ‘Noles hoping to finish in the nation’s top 10 for the first time in five years, and the ‘Canes looking to avenge their 10-7 loss against FSU in last year’s ACC Championship betting.
Moving west to the Big 12, MySportsbook.com has betting lines listing Texas as 7-5 favorites to repeat as conference champions, even though the Longhorns lost their national championship-winning quarterback Vince Young to the NFL. In the south, the Auburn Tigers – led by Heisman-hopeful senior running back Kenny Irons – have been given the best odds to win the SEC Championship odds at 5-2.
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| Notre Dame Ohio State West Virginia Texas USC Florida California Auburn Oklahoma Iowa Louisville Florida State Michigan Miami (FL) LSU Penn State Virginia Tech Nebraska Tennessee Georgia Arizona State Oregon Clemson Texas A&M Texas Tech Alabama Arkansas Boston College Michigan State Maryland South Carolina Colorado Purdue Georgia Tech TCU UCLA Arizona Pittsburgh Iowa State Wisconsin North Carolina State Virginia North Carolina Fresno State Hawaii Northwestern BYU Oregon State UNLV Field (Any Other Team) |
5-1 7-1 8-1 8-1 8-1 12-1 15-1 15-1 18-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 25-1 40-1 40-1 50-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 70-1 70-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 150-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 250-1 250-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 400-1 500-1 500-1 500-1 500-1 1000-1 1000-1 40-1 |
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2-1 2-1 3-1 7-1 15-1 15-1 15-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 50-1 500-1 |
| Texas Oklahoma Nebraska Texas Tech Colorado Iowa State Texas A&M Kansas State Missouri Kansas Baylor Oklahoma State |
7-5 9-5 9-2 12-1 14-1 15-1 15-1 30-1 30-1 35-1 100-1 100-1 |
| Auburn Florida LSU Georgia Tennessee Arkansas Alabama Mississippi South Carolina Mississippi State Kentucky Vanderbilt |
5-2 11-4 4-1 6-1 7-1 7-1 9-1 20-1 28-1 75-1 100-1 300-1 |
For complete NCAA football odds please visit Mysportsbook.com.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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